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Could Earnings Move This Market? | Jeff Bishop Weekly Money Multiplier

Posted on July 20, 2019 by Brandon Buckley

Stocks settled slightly lower on the week, as traders continue to digest Q2 earnings numbers.

And despite releases from Netflix ( which dropped -15.58%), Microsoft, JPMorgan, and Goldman Sachs…

… overall, stocks traded in a tight range, with the S&P 500 closing down 1.23%, the Dow 0.65%, and the Nasdaq falling by 1.18%.

However, I’m expecting a break from this tight range soon, as more than 600 names are reporting next week, including Tesla, Chipotle, Facebook, Starbucks, and McDonald’s.

And while earnings will dominate the headlines for the next several weeks, it won’t be the only thing on traders minds.

The Federal Reserve is still set to meet on July 30th and 31st, and while traders are expecting a rate cut, they are still unsure of the size of it (25 bps to 50bps cut are the expectations).

It’s sort of strange that we’re talking about a rate cut when stocks are near all-time highs, but this is the market we’re in… nothing we can do about it.

That said, I’m staying stock-specific, looking at bearish and bullish setups…

And while it was a slow week for some traders, I did manage to knock back some epic trades.

(One good trade can wipe a lot of losers out, this trade was alerted in real-time to Weekly Money Multiplier clients, want my next alert? Join Now)

That said, I’m really pumped about next week, with hundreds of companies reporting, and a slew of economic catalysts, I think this market breaks out of its tight range.

Read on for my breakdown on the upcoming week, including earnings, IPOs, economic catalysts, and of course, some trade ideas.

Earnings Season is Here… and it could move the market

The market has been relatively flat, as the market is still waiting on a flood of earnings report set to hit the market in the coming weeks. Traders are also watching the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), as they’re expected to cut interest rates at the end of the month.

Right now, there is a mixed bag of earnings.

For example, we saw Netflix (NFLX) report earnings Wednesday night… and it gapped more than options traders expected (NFLX opened down over 10%, while the market was looking for a 7.4% move.)

The reason?

The outlook had investors shaken up. You see, when a stock trades at 100 times its earnings… there’s no room for a growth slowdown.

Now, the market might forget about this soon… and take a stab at this as a buying opportunity. However, it could be a red flag that the U.S. economy isn’t growing as fast as many think.

Now, NFLX did move the market… however, Microsoft (MSFT) reported earnings last night and gapped up slightly… which was one of the reasons holding up the market, as well as the expectations of a rate cut later this month.

Here’s a look at the tech ETF – QQQ – on the hourly chart.

Right now, the market looks like it could be topping, and starting to pull back a little… and there are some key levels to watch below. That said, if there are a slew of weak earnings in high-flying tech names… then we could see a sell off in QQQ soon… and I think there will be even more opportunities for us if that happens.

Here are some levels to watch in SPY.

The two catalysts that could spark a sell-off right now are earnings and the Fed.

If earnings actually are weaker than expected, well… look out below.

If the FOMC decides to slow down on its rate cuts for the year… then the market could experience a sharp pullback.

Either way it goes, we’ll be ready.

One Industry I’m Watching Right Now

Right now, one industry is actually looking really interesting. If the economy is actually slowing, what’s actually being affected?

Shipping companies.

You see, that means not a lot of people are buying goods… in turn, that means there isn’t a whole lot of demand for shipping services from companies like FedEx (FDX) and XPO Logistics (XPO). That said, I’m bearish on those stocks… and those are just two of the names I’m watching.

And it all traces back to the Fed.

The market is pricing in a 75.5% chance of a 0.25% rate cut and a 24.5% chance of a 0.50% rate cut.

That said, with the Fed set to meet at the end of the month, I’ll also be watching interest-related stocks and exchange-traded funds (ETFs), like gold miners, the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), and the SPDR Gold Shares (GLD).

Before we get into the earnings calendar, let’s see what’s on tap for economic indicators.

Economic Calendar

Monday July 22

8:30 AM EST Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index for June

Tuesday July 23

7:45 AM EST ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
8:55 AM EST Johnson/Redbook Weekly Sales
9:00 AM EST FHFA House Price Index
10:00 AM EST Richmond Fed Index
10:00 AM EST Existing Home Sales
4:30 PM EST API Weekly Inventory Data

Wednesday July 24

7:00 AM EST MBA Mortgage Applications Data
9:45 AM EST Markit US Manufacturing PMI
9:45 AM EST Markit US Services PMI
9:45 AM EST Markit US Composite PMI
10:00 AM EST New Home Sales
10:30 AM EST Weekly DOE Inventory Data

Thursday July 25

8:30 AM EST Weekly Jobless Claims
8:30 AM EST Continuing Claims
8:30 AM EST Durable Goods Orders
8:30 AM EST Durable Goods: Ex Transportation
9:45 AM EST Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
10:30 AM EST Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
11:00 AM EST Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity

Friday July 26

8:30 AM EST GDP Annualized
8:30 AM EST Personal Consumption
8:30 AM EST GDP Price Index
8:30 AM EST Core PCE
1:00 PM EST Baker Hughes Weekly Rig Count

Now, for the earnings calendar, unless otherwise stated, the implied move is for weekly contracts expiring Friday. Implied moves with (Monthly) are for those expiring in August. Additionally, the historical average move is based on the last 16 earnings, unless stated otherwise. BMO stands for Before Market Open, and AMC stands for After Market Close.

Expected Report Date	Company / Ticker	Implied Move	Historical Average Move
Monday, July 22, 2019 BMO	Halliburton Company (HAL)	5.58%	4.27%
	Lennox International (LII)	6.07% (Monthly)	5.27%
	PetMed Express (PETS)	17.38% (Monthly)	12.76%

Monday, July 22, 2019 AMC	Cadence Design Systems (CDNS)	7.20% (Monthly)	8.11%
	Celanese Corp. (CE)	5.92% (Monthly)	4.75%
	Crane Company (CR)	5.93% (Monthly)	6.68%
	Logitech International (LOGI)	8.56% (Monthly)	10.28%
	Steel Dynamics (STLD)	7.75% (Monthly)	4.95%
	TD Ameritrade (AMTD)	3.53%	3.69%
	Whirlpool Corp. (WHR)	6.51%	8.25%
	Zions Bancorporation (ZION)	6.71% (Monthly)	3.94%

Tuesday, July 23, 2019 BMO	Allegheny Technologies (ATI)	9.08% (Monthly)	12.95%
	AutoNation (AN)	6.96% (Monthly)	6.80%
	Biogen Inc. (BIIB)	4.46%	6.20%
	Coca-Cola (KO)	2.71%	2.79%
	Harley-Davidson (HOG)	6.41%	7.76%
	Hasbro Inc. (HAS)	6.58%	9.22%
	JetBlue (JBLU)	6.92% (Monthly)	5.95%
	KeyCorp (KEY)	3.93%	4.03%
	Kimberly-Clark (KMB)	3.55%	3.42%
	Lockheed Martin (LMT)	3.03%	3.72%
	PACCAR Inc. (PCAR)	6.80% (Monthly)	5.52%
	Sherwin-Williams Co. (SHW)	4.15%	5.87%
	TransUnion (TRU)	6.07% (Monthly)	7.66%
	Travelers Companies (TRV)	4.09% (Monthly)	3.38%
	United Technologies (UTX)	3.22%	3.46%

Tuesday, July 23, 2019 AMC	Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG)	6.47%	9.26%
	Discover Financial (DFS)	3.49%	4.40%
	iRobot Corp. (IRBT)	11.46%	15.45%
	Snap Inc. (SNAP)	13.13%	21.3% (Last 8 Earnings)
	Texas Instruments (TXN)	4.48%	4.96%
	Visa Inc. (V)	3.11%	3.71%

Wednesday, July 24, 2019 BMO	Alexion Pharmaceuticals (ALXN)	6.45%	6.76%
	Anthem (ANTM)	3.94%	5.47%
	AT&T (T)	3.75%	3.95%
	Boeing (BA)	4.00%	4.84%
	Caterpillar Inc. (CAT)	4.81%	5.37%
	General Dynamics (GD)	3.61%	4.92%
	Hilton Worldwide (HLT)	5.30% (Monthly)	4.32%
	Nasdaq (NDAQ)	4.44% (Monthly)	2.85%
	United Parcel Service (UPS)	4.65%	4.73%
	VF Corp. (VFC)	5.34%	7.53%
	W.W. Grainger (GWW)	6.23%	8.54%
	Wix.com (WIX)	9.57% (Monthly)	14.38%

Wednesday, July 24, 2019 AMC	Allegiant Travel Company (ALGT)	8.55% (Monthly)	9.12%
	Cerner Corp. (CERN)	6.31% (Monthly)	7.91%
	F5 Networks (FFIV)	5.49%	6.95%
	Facebook Inc. (FB)	6.60%	7.96%
	Ford Motor Company (F)	4.47%	5.14%
	Las Vegas Sands (LVS)	4.54%	4.92%
	Mellanox Technologies (MLNX)	4.95%	8.16%
	O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY)	6.62% (Monthly)	6.14%
	PayPal (PYPL)	5.42%	6.42% (Last 8 Earnings)
	Six Flags (SIX)	7.77% (Monthly)	7.31%
	Tesla Inc. (TSLA)	8.32%	8.47%
	Xilinx Inc. (XLNX)	7.86%	8.56%

Thursday, July 25, 2019 BMO	3M Company (MMM)	4.39%	5.01%
	Aaron’s Inc. (AAN)	9.70% (Monthly)	12.92%
	Air Products & Chemicals (APD)	4.92% (Monthly)	4.26%
	Allegion (ALLE)	5.16% (Monthly)	5.35%
	Anheuser-Busch (BUD)	4.22%	4.71%
	AstraZeneca (AZN)	3.63%	4.92%
	Baxter International (BAX)	3.57%	4.16%
	Bristol-Meyers Squibb (BMY)	4.06%	4.37%
	First Data Corp. (FDC)	5.41% (Monthly)	8.46% (Last 8 Earnings)
	Hershey Company (HSY)	4.61%	5.13%
	KKR & Co. (KKR)	4.40%	5.26%
	LendingTree (TREE)	11.56% (Monthly)	18.23%
	Raytheon (RTN)	3.50%	4.23%
	Southwest Airlines (LUV)	4.77%	7.33%
	Tractor Supply Company (TSCO)	5.44%	6.45%
	Valero Energy Corp. (VLO)	3.86%	4.44%
	WWE (WWE)	10.83% (Monthly)	9.17%

Thursday, July 25, 2019 AMC	AFLAC (AFL)	2.73%	2.87%
	Alaska Air Group (ALK)	6.45% (Monthly)	5.63%
	Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL)	4.58%	6.04%
	Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN)	4.46%	7.65%
	Atlassian Corp. (TEAM)	9.11%	13.20%
	Deckers Brands (DECK)	9.30% (Monthly)	10.03%
	Edison International (EIX)	6.40% (Monthly)	3.02%
	Expedia Inc. (EXPE)	6.30%	9.01%
	Intel Corp. (INTC)	5.23%	6.03%
	LogMeIn (LOGM)	9.67%	12.05%
	MGM Resorts (MGM)	5.35%	6.91%
	Starbucks Corp. (SBUX)	4.19%	4.68%

Friday, July 26, 2019 BMO	AbbVie Inc. (ABBV)	3.79%	6.20%
	AON Plc (AON)	4.29% (Monthly)	3.09%
	Colgate-Palmolive Co. (CL)	3.26%	3.75%
	Goodyear Tire (GT)	6.48%	8.21%
	McDonalds Corp. (MCD)	3%	3.89%
	Phillips 66 (PSX)	3.22%	3.59%
	Twitter Inc. (TWTR)	10.46%	15.11%

IPO Calendar

Castle Biosciences (CSTL) expected on 7/25, 3.33M share offering pricing range $14 – $16.
Sunnova Energy (NOVA) expected 7/25, 17.6M share offering pricing range $16 – $18
Health Catalyst (HCAT) expected 7/25, 6M share offering pricing range $20 – $23
Livongo Health (LVGO) expected 7/25, 10.7M share offering pricing range $20 – $23
ProSight Global (PROS) expected 7/25, 8.8M share offering pricing range $16 – $18
Wanda Sports (WSG) expected 7/26, 33.3M share offering pricing range $12 – $15

Source: WeeklyMoneyMultiplier.com | Original Link

The Difference Between Slow and Fast Moving Averages

Posted on July 18, 2019 by Brandon Buckley

Have you ever gotten in a trade and immediately after, watch that position move against you like the markets were playing an evil trick?

Now, if it has, don’t worry, it happens to everyone. However, if you are always getting stopped out, or if your risk vs. reward ratios are off, then you’ve got a problem that needs correcting.

You are either setting your stops too tight, and not giving the trade enough room to work…

Or, you’re not entering trades with high-probability setups.

What does that mean?

Well, before I enter a trade, there are a few things I outline.

For example, I already know my stock entry price… where my stop will be…and my profit targets.

This process has helped me amass millions in trading profits over the last decade.

But that’s just my trading plan. What do I use to find my entry points, targets, and stop levels?

Moving Averages.

Now, there are two types of moving averages… keep reading to learn more.

These Lines Could Help You Spot Trends and Reversals

There is one indicator that many chartists, including myself, use to spot trends and potential reversals: moving averages.

Now, if you don’t know… there are two types of moving averages: exponential and simple.

Basically, exponential moving averages (EMA) place more weight on recent price action using a mathematical formula. On the other hand, the simple moving averages (SMA) place equal weight on price action.

We’re only going to be focused on simple moving averages today.

Short-Term vs. Long-Term SMAs

That said, moving averages are a great tool to spot the overall trend.

How?

Well, here’s a look at the daily chart in Roku Inc. (ROKU) with the 20-day SMA plotted.

Notice the line in the chart?

Well the 20-day SMA is considered a “fast” or short term moving average. In other words, the 20-day SMA follows prices more closely than a longer-term SMA.

As you can see, the 20-day SMA gives us an idea of the overall short-term trend and acts as support and resistance at times.

Now, if you’re swing trading (only holding a stock for a few days or weeks), then you’ll want to look at short-term SMAs, like the 10-, 20-, 30- or 50-day SMAs.

On the other hand, if you’re more of a longer-term trader (buy and hold), then the longer-term SMAs, like the 50,- 100- and 200-day SMAs may be more beneficial. You see, slow-moving averages give us an idea of the longer-term trend.

However, when you’re just looking at longer-term SMAs, it’s often hard to spot clear entries.

For example, take a look at the 100-day SMA plotted in ROKU.

It’s going to be a while before there is a clear signal there.

The problem that many traders have is the fact that they stick to just one indicator and ignore the others… some traders might just look at the 20-day SMA and ignore the 200-day SMA… but as traders, that’s the wrong mindset to have.

Just because you swing trade, that doesn’t mean you should ignore long-term SMAs… or ignore short-term SMAs if we’re buying and holding stocks for the long term.

In fact, sometimes it’s helpful to know both the short- and long-term trends.

How is this beneficial to our trading?

Well, you can look for price breaks above short-term moving averages to signal entries, and longer-term SMAs to spot key support levels.

For example, here’s a look at the chart in ROKU again.

Notice how ROKU held above the 200-day SMA, which acted as a support line. Shortly after, the stock broke above the 20-day SMA… and just started to run higher.

That said, you could’ve bought shares on the break above the 20-day SMA… and used a break below the 200-day SMA to stop out of the position. Thereafter, you could hold your shares and wait for a clear signal to sell your shares (like a break below the 20-day SMA).

Now, that’s not the only way you can use moving averages.

You see, there’s actually something known as bullish and bearish crossovers.

Combining Short-term and Long-term SMAs

Now, a bullish crossover occurs when the short-term SMA (say the 20-day SMA) crosses above a longer-term SMA (this could be either the 50-, 100-, or 200-day SMA).

You see, when the shorter-term SMA crosses above a longer-term SMA… that lets us know that a potential shift in trend is happening.

Remember, the shorter-term SMA will react faster to price changes than the slow SMA.

So what happens when a stock moves higher?

Well, the 20-day SMA will react faster than say the 50-day SMA.

For example, take a look at the daily chart in ROKU again. This time, the 20-, 50- and 200-day SMAs are plotted.

Notice in the chart above, you’ll see the red line cross above the green line. Prior to that, you can see that ROKU was actually making lower highs, and consolidating… and there was no clear trend.

That’s what we call a bullish crossover because the shorter-term SMA (the 20-day SMA, or the red line) crossed above the 50-day SMA (the green line).

Once those two lines cross… you can see how the stock just starts to run higher.

As you can see, short-term (fast) moving averages react to price changes more quickly than long-term (slow) moving averages. Both have their place… but when you combine the two types, then you can find clear entries and exits.

Now, trend lines have helped me become a consistently profitable trader with over $2M in career trading profits… and it’s allowed me to remain calm, cool and collected when I’m trading.

If you’re looking to find tranquility in your trading… then check out my latest training lesson on three simple trend lines that have helped me over the years.

I also make notes about the chart setup, which helps remind me what my plan is and to not deviate from it.

Source: PetraPicks.com | Original Link

Kyle Dennis Black Optics | 3 Ways to Tell if A Stock Has Bottomed

Posted on July 18, 2019 by Brandon Buckley

Over the last year:

Amarin Corp jumped from $2.35 to $21.07

PaySign, Inc. spiked from a low of $2.41 to $16.77

Axsome Therapeutics has catapulted from $1.94 to as high as $28.00

Imagine getting in at the lows and riding those babies up…

…there is something heroic about being the person who bought a stock at its absolute lows…

With earnings season here, there will be plenty of traders dumpster-diving/catching a falling knife… trying to find the bottom on stocks that are getting sold off after corporate earnings releases.

For example, Netflix, which is down considerably (40 points in the pre-market after it announced its Q2 results last night)… is going to be a stock that some day traders will try to catch a bottom in…

It’s a risky strategy… but does offer high reward.

Is it worth it? And can you REALLY be able to pick bottoms in stocks?

My answer might shock you.

3 Indicators for Picking Bottoms

How often have you seen a stock drop and wanted to buy it?

Only when you bought it… a few hours or days later… the stock collapses and sells off even more… and you end up taking a massive loss.

It’s happened to me in my early days of trading.

However, over the years, I’ve realized just because a stock is dropping quick… it doesn’t mean you should buy it… and the stock being “down” too much isn’t a real reason to buy a stock.

That’s just trying to catch a falling knife… and it can get ugly.

Why try to buy a stock that’s falling rapidly with no signs of stopping, when there are indicators for finding when a stock has bottomed out?

No, they’re not hard to spot… and these indicators work because price action matters when you’re trying to find reversal trades.

The Simplest Indicator to Spot Potential Bottoms

One of the easiest ways to spot when a stock has bottomed out is by looking at the chart. Basically, you’re looking for a support level. In other words, you’re looking for an area where the stock could have a tough time breaking below.

For example, check out the daily chart in Eros International (EROS).

The stock dropped significantly back in June after the company’s debt caught a severe downgrade from Moody’s, which shook traders… causing them to panic sell.

Now, if you were just trying to pick a bottom without looking at the charts… then you would’ve actually taken it on the chin even more.

So how do you know if a stock has stopped falling and is set to rebound?

Well, if you take a look at the chart, you’ll notice that whenever the stock locked in a positive day (white bars), there was no real volume behind it (we’ll get into the importance of volume shortly).

However, EROS was approaching right near a key support level of $1 (typically if a stock sells hard, there should be some buyers right around $1). That means it’ll have a tough time breaking below that.

If you notice, the stock actually has some support at the blue horizontal line (right around $1.25 / $1.30).

Now, just because there could be support there… it doesn’t mean we buy right away… we actually look at the volume as well.

Volume Matters When You’re Trying to Find the Bottom

Why does volume matter when you’re trying to find reversal trades?

If you don’t know, volume measures the number of shares that have been traded during a specified period.

Think about it like this… if you’re trying to find a bottom, you want to see a lot of demand for the stock.

What does that mean?

Well, you would want to see the stock bounce off the resistance level with volume.

Here’s what I’m talking about.

If you look under the price chart, you’ll notice the volume traded for that day. As you can see, EROS was actually bouncing off the support level with volume.

What that let us know was that there was heavy demand for the stock because 7.91M shares of EROS exchanged hands that day… and it only had an average daily trading volume of just 2.28M, according to Finviz.

That said, volume confirmed the bottom was in… and here’s what happened with the stock…

Is the Stock Breaking Above the Down Trend?

The overall trend in a stock matters a lot.

For example, if you think a stock could potentially bounce… you would wait for the stock to establish a support level… then move higher on above-average volume.

Now, if the stock breaks below the overall downtrend, that could be an indication that the bottom is in.

For example, take a look at the daily chart in U.S. Silica Holdings (SLCA) below.

Notice how the stock found some support right around $9.50. SLCA failed to break below that multiple times… and could’ve been a signal to keep an eye on the stock.

Not only that, you can see the stock breaking above the downtrend line.

Additionally, we see volume picking up with a move higher… as the stock traded ~1.74M shares, while its average daily trading volume was around 1.5M.

Here’s a look at what happened with the stock just over 2 weeks later…

As you can see, there are clear ways to figure out when the bottom is in.

That said, the next time you’re looking for a stock to bounce… don’t try to catch the falling knife. Rather, look for an area of support, volume confirming a move higher, and/or a break above the downtrend.

I get it, it’s daunting at first with all the noise in the market. If you’re struggling to find ways to pull high returns from the market… then click here to watch my latest training lesson in which I go over how you can find clarity amongst the chaos in the markets.

[Ed.note: Kyle Dennis runs BiotechBreakouts.com. He is an event-based trader, who prefers low-priced and small-cap biotech stocks.

To learn more JOIN THIS SPECIAL ONLINE EVENT: 3-Step Plan Kyle Used to Turn $15,253 into $2,855,475 and download his FREE “The $2.9 Million Biotech Trader Playbook here!]

Source: BiotechBreakouts.com | Original Link

Petra Picks PLATINUM Strategy | How to Recover After Losing Money in the Market

Posted on July 17, 2019 by Brandon Buckley

About ten years ago, I decided to take control of my personal finances after I found out that my advisor lost nearly half of my portfolio during the financial crisis.

I decided to roll up my sleeves and get to work.

There I was… at the age of 50, ready to embark on a new journey…

And the only thing that gave me confidence was that idea that I couldn’t be as bad as my broker was.

However, it wasn’t a fairy tale start.

Sure, I can sit back and chuckle at it, now that I’ve made over $2M in trading profits…

But believe me, I was a deer in headlights when I started trading. I was overtrading and overwhelming myself.

However, that all changed once I switched up my approach.

Instead of thinking about all the money I was going to make, I started thinking about risk management and preserving capital. I also started to develop an investing plan.

Keep reading to learn how to build your plan.

The Importance of Developing A Plan

When you’re trading stocks, it helps to start out with a plan. Think about it like this, you’re going to be putting your capital at risk… so you should know exactly what you’re getting into and should have some guidelines in place.

You see, a lot of traders don’t start out with a plan… and more times than not, they end up taking a massive loss and damaging their trading accounts.

However, that doesn’t mean you can’t get back up and recover from that loss.

As I mentioned earlier, I was once in that situation before… my broker lost 50% of my account… and I knew I needed a plan in place to get my account back into positive territory.

Now, I actually have experience with developing business plans, and it’s actually not that difficult to translate those skills
into trading.

Assess the Situation

For example, the first thing to do if you’re trying to recover from losses is to assess your finances.

Basically, you want to figure out how much capital you have to trade, which will allow you to also figure out your risk tolerance. If you don’t know, the size of your account matters when it comes to brokers.

You see, in order to day trade, you must have an account of $25K+. If your account is below $25K, the Pattern Day Trader (PDT) rule will be enforced. In other words, if you buy and sell a stock in the same day, more than 3 times in a trading week… you run the risk of getting your account frozen for some time.

Basically, you want to figure out whether you’re in a financial position to trade. This will ultimately dictate your style of trading.

For example, just because you don’t have $25K+ in your account to trade with doesn’t mean you can’t still learn how to trade. In fact, there are scalable strategies out there that actually work around this and cater to those who aren’t always able to day trade.

Once you find a strategy that suits your personality, you should try to spot a setup and plan your trade around it. You can paper trade or even just write down your plan and look back at the chart later.

You see, when you’re trying to bounce back from losses, it’s all about controlling your risk.

One quick way to manage your risk is to develop a plan.

Trade the Plan

When you have a trading plan, you have “rules” to follow. Ultimately this helps with your risk management.

Think, if you’re just trading a stock… you don’t know where you’re getting in the stock, stopping out, or taking profits… you just want in.

To me, that’s reckless, and I have actually traded that way before… but not anymore, I’m calm, cool and calculated.

Planning my trades ahead of time helped me with that.

For example, here’s a look at one of my trading plans, which I sent out to my clients.

I know exactly where I’m looking to buy the stock and stop out in case things get sour. Now, I also know where my targets are.

When you have a plan like this… all you have to do is execute.

For example, let’s say you saw ATUS break above $25 (the neckline for the inverse head and shoulders pattern), and you bought shares at $25.15.

Well, here’s how the pattern works. We look for a fall in the stock price, followed by a rise to some resistance level (the blue horizontal line here). This forms the left shoulder.

Thereafter, the stock bulls back to a level lower than the right shoulder. Again, the stock bounces and reaches the resistance level. Finally, it pulls back to another level and rebounds… and then breaks above the neckline, typically.

Here’s a look at what the stock did.

Now, since there is a clear stop-loss area, you can just enter a stop-limit order, which you can read more about here.

If you take profits at any point… you may want to look to move your stop-limit price higher. Basically, this helps prevent you from turning a winner into a loser.

Once the trade is over, you should journal and note whether your plan worked or not… and whatever tweaks you should make. Now, if you’ve been stuck in the mud and looking for ways to time your entries and exits… then click here to watch the replay of my live trading session.

Source: PetraPicks.com | Original Link

NFLX Earnings: Here’s What the Market Is Saying | Jeff Bishop Weekly Money Multiplier

Posted on July 17, 2019 by Brandon Buckley

President Trump gave the markets something to think about it when he told reporters yesterday that the U.S. has a long way to go to secure a trade deal with China, and even hinted at imposing further tariffs on them.

And while that is bound to get some attention from traders for the next few days, it won’t be the main focus.

You see, earnings season has started… and it’s running fast this week. Tonight after the close, Netflix, IBM, eBay, United Rentals, Kinder Morgan, and Alcoa will be releasing their quarterly results (Q2).

For some of these stocks, earnings day will be the most volatile trading of the year…

… and as traders, we welcome it.

However, one mistake I see traders make is that they don’t make adjustments when they’re trading options on stocks that have earnings.

You see, it’s no secret that stocks are expected to be more volatile during earnings, and the options market “prices it in.”

Furthermore, there is one statistic that options traders use to gauge how big or small a move is expected to be in the stock during its earnings day.

If you don’t know what that statistic is, how to analyze it, and use it to make informed trading decisions, then you’re putting yourself in a significant disadvantage.

Of course, I’m not going to leave you hanging. Not only am I going to answer those questions for you, but I’m also going to breakdown what the options market is telling us about tonight’s Netflix earnings.

This One Statistic Can Tell You What the Market is Expecting

Well, it’s earnings season… and traders will be looking at one statistic to get an idea of what the market is looking for. I’m talking about the “implied move”, or “implied straddle”.

Now, if you don’t know what a straddle is… it’s simply a strategy in which you buy calls and puts with the same expiration dates and strike price. If you purchase a straddle… you want the stock to have a big move in either direction.

That said, there are some traders who actually buy an at-the-money (ATM) straddle ahead of an earnings event. Before you try to go out and do that… there are some things you need to know.

If you need to brush up on options trading, click here to claim my free eGuide – 30 Days to Options Trading.

Calculating the Expected Move

Calculating the implied move is actually really easy… all you need to do is find the ATM calls and puts for contracts that include the earnings date.

For example, Netflix Inc. (NFLX) is set to report earnings after the bell, and the stock closed at $365.99, so look to the $365 calls and puts.

If you look at Yahoo Finance, you can find the “Straddle” view of the options chain.

Now, here’s a look at the options that traders use to calculate the implied move:

Now, if you notice in the options chain above, there are two prices here: $13.95 for the $365 calls and $13.20 for the $365 puts. Well, you would simply add the two up and that’s the price of the straddle.

Thereafter, you would divide the price of the ATM straddle by the stock price. So the $365 straddle expiring this week was $27.15, as of yesterday’s close. That means the market is looking for a 7.42% move ($27.15 / $365.99).

What that means is traders are expecting NFLX to move around 7.42% after its earnings announcement. However, that doesn’t mean the stock can’t move more or less than that value.

Now, what typically happens after an earnings event is the “vol crush”, or implied volatility crush.

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Volatility Crush

If you don’t know, an earnings event is filled with uncertainty. You see, companies provide the market with a look into how it’s been performing… and they might provide guidance or make comments on a conference call.

Due to all this uncertainty, the implied volatility in options actually rises ahead of the event.

You see, an option’s price can be broken down into two components – intrinsic value and extrinsic value. Intrinsic value is just the value of the option in relation to the stock on the expiration date of if you exercise those options.

However, it’s the extrinsic value we really care about here.

Heading into an earnings event, traders get excited and place their bets on either puts or calls… and the market will price in a specific move (the market is expecting around a 7.42% move for NFLX).

Since there’s potential volatility, traders are looking to potentially make money after the report… and it actually increases the demand for options in the stock.

However, what happens after an earnings event?

Well, the cat is out of the bag, as there is not a whole lot of uncertainty anymore… so the implied volatility in options actually gets crushed (there is a lot of supply in the market now, and traders are looking to get out of those options.)

Now, no matter how the market digests the NFLX earnings report, theoretically, if you buy the straddle heading into NFLX earnings and it moves more than 7.42%, you would make money.

On the other hand, if you short the straddle (sell the $365 puts and calls expiring this week), and if NFLX moves less than 7.42%, you would theoretically make money.

Source: WeeklyMoneyMultiplier.com | Original Link

Kyle Dennis Black Optics | 5 FDA Terms You Should Know for Trading Biotechs

Posted on July 16, 2019 by Brandon Buckley

If you don’t know, I didn’t start to make real, life-changing money until I starting scaling up on my biotech trades. Over the years, I’ve been able to understand what moves biotech stocks… and a lot of the times it’s due to a catalyst event.

However, when you’re first starting trading biotechs… you might be overwhelmed by all the information thrown at you. You see, biotech companies use their own lingo… and if you can understand what they’re saying… then the profits should follow with.

Now, there are specific terms that let me know whether a trade will be good or not… and I focus on those solely.

There are 5 terms that you should know if you want to start trading biotechs:

Phase I / II / III trial
New Drug Application
PDUFA
Form 510K
Advisory Committee Meeting (Adcomm)

Clinical Trials

Before biotech or pharmaceutical companies market their treatments to consumers, they have to go through a grueling process. One of those processes is clinical trials.

Now, clinical trials are typically split up into three stages: Phase I, Phase II, and Phase III (sometimes you’ll see a Phase IV, but it’s not that common).

A Phase I trial is the first stage of the clinical trial process. In this stage, the company typically conducts a dose testing trial conducted in healthy volunteers. In other words, they’re testing their treatments in healthy volunteers.

Now, the end goal of this trial is to determine the maximum tolerable dose in healthy humans. In this trial, the company tests the treatment to determine how the human body metabolizes, in other words, removes the treatment from the body.

Additionally, they’ll test the treatment to see whether it’s safe, how tolerable people are to it, and whether the treatment works.

If the company gets the okay to move onto a Phase II trial.

In the Phase II trial, a small patient population would be used to determine the safety, and sometimes the efficacy, of the treatment.

Now, the Phase II trial is divided into Phase IIa and IIb, sometimes. A Phase IIa trial is primarily conducted in figure out the dosage for patients. On the other hand, a Phase IIb is used to test the initial efficacy (how effective the treatment is).

If the company moves onto the Phase III stage, there would be a large scale, full-fledged, and often pivotal, trial to test the treatment’s efficacy and safety. In other words, the Phase III clinical trial is conducted to confirm the effectiveness, monitor the side effects, as well as compare the drug to other commonly used treatments.

Now, this might all sound a bit confusing at first… but it gets easier. You see, all really have to do is see whether the data release is positive or negative.

For example, I actually made $5,600 on a biotech stock that released positive Phase I / IIA results recently.

You see, the company actually noted the treatment was effective and “detected immune responses to 93%…”

Here’s a look at the press release.

Not too long after, I spotted a buying opportunity… and with good data just a few weeks prior to when I got in… it could still run higher.

(Looking for biotech alerts? Click here to receive alerts to trades like this one in GNCA… in real-time)

Now, once I spotted my setup, I had my stops and targets in place… and was able to lock in $5,600 in just 1 day.

(If you want to learn how to profit from biotech stocks, click here to find out more about the strategy that turned me into a millionaire)

Moving on.

Another key FDA term to know is Form 510(K).

Form 510(K)

Now, the Form 510(k) is a premarket approval notification. This form is generally filed by manufacturers of a new medical device if the device is “substantially similar” to an already approved device, which also did not require a premarket approval form.

However, as regulations have become stricter, the FDA has started asking for more and more data for the 510(k), making it almost equivalent to an early approval form.

When a company gets 510(K) approval, that’s really bullish… and you can actually spot plays from that.

Why?

Well, if they’re approved, they move closer to being able to generate revenues and earnings from the product… which causes the stock to run up, as traders price this in.

I’ll often look to see whether companies have upcoming 510(K) approval dates, pair it with a bullish chart pattern, for the catalyst runup.

(If you want to be a part of FDA Insider Alerts and receive my biotech and pharma watchlists, as well as real-time alerts and so much more… click here to take advantage of the 80% discount NOW)

Moving on, the next term is an important one. It’s the Prescription Drug User Fee Act (PDUFA)

PDUFA

PDUFA is both a law and a procedural step. Now Congress passed PDUFA, which allows drug sponsors to pay the FDA a fee to study their New Drug Application (NDA) and approve or reject the drug candidate.

Now, as a procedural step, it is the particular day on which the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) makes this decision, and it’s one of the most important catalysts in the premarket lifecycle of a drug candidate.

Basically, this is known as the FDA approval date. If the treatment gets approved… then look for the stock to gap up… if it isn’t approved, well… the stock will probably drop.

Again, this is another term that I look for and pair with a bullish chart pattern… and let my clients know my exact plan.

Now, I actually mentioned the next term just before when I was talking about PDUFA.

New Drug Application (NDA)

The NDA is an application made by the sponsor of a drug candidate to the FDA before or during the Phase III trial.

The primary goals of an NDA are to determine whether the treatment is safe and effective and if the benefits of the treatment outweigh the potential risks.

Basically, the NDA should provide the FDA with enough data for it to determine if the proposed labeling is appropriate and what other information it should contain. Moreover, there should be data that describes the manufacturing methods and quality control.

If the NDA is approved, the sponsor can market the drug in the U.S. On the other hand, the application could be rejected outright. However, this is quite rare. The FDA could also ask for more data, or another trial, or for further clarifications.

Advisory Committee Meeting (Adcomm)

An Adcomm, or Advisory Committee meeting, is often summoned by the FDA a month before the PDUFA and consists of a dozen or so outside experts, a patients advocacy representative, and a non-voting industry expert.

At the end of the discussion, they vote to approve or reject a drug. This decision is non-binding for the FDA, but is often indicative of the PDUFA decision.

That said, it’s critical to know when adcomm dates are, especially if you’re trading biotech stocks. For example, if the meeting vote was a clear cut “No” that tells you to shy away from buying the stock until there’s another potential positive catalyst.

As you can see, understanding these terms can help you uncover opportunities in the biotech and pharma stocks. Now, if you’re ready to find massive catalyst trades in these stocks, then take advantage of my FDA Insider Alerts today.

[Ed.note: Kyle Dennis runs BiotechBreakouts.com. He is an event-based trader, who prefers low-priced and small-cap biotech stocks.

To learn more JOIN THIS SPECIAL ONLINE EVENT: 3-Step Plan Kyle Used to Turn $15,253 into $2,855,475 and download his FREE “The $2.9 Million Biotech Trader Playbook here!]

Source: BiotechBreakouts.com | Original Link

Jason Bond Weekly Windfalls Reviews | Option Buyer vs. Seller

Posted on July 16, 2019 by Brandon Buckley

They say trading options is complicated, and that most people who try will struggle or either fail.

Heck, I struggled and failed my first attempt at trading options too.

And you better believe it was frustrating.

After all, here I am, a consistently profitable momentum trader whose skills aren’t transferring over to options.

Maybe something like this has happened to you:

You see your ideal chart setup, a bullish one, and you think, if I buy calls here and the stock pops I should get paid out…

Then the expected moves happens, you get excited, go to your options position to pull up an order ticket to close out for a profit…

But it turns out that the position is in the red… and are actually down on the position.

It’s the kind of stuff that would happen to me that almost made me swear off options for good.

However, options weren’t the enemy… nor was there someone out to get me.

You see, when you buy a call or a put, it’s not enough to guess the right direction, you also need to get the timing and volatility right…if you want to make money as an options buyer.

And that’s why I wasn’t able to profit utilizing my stock trading skills.

However, all of that has changed now. My latest options strategy allows me to profit from all the factors that were killing me. I’m even getting much better returns on my trades.

The beauty behind being an option seller is that there are several outcomes that can occur and I’ll still get paid on them.

(My latest options strategy, Weekly Windfalls, should be bigger than anything I’ve ever accomplished with stocks. And if 19 for my 19 trades is any indication, then you’d be silly not to join me as Weekly Windfalls Founding Member)

But that’s just the tip of the iceberg when we’re talking about the differences between premium buyers and sellers. In fact, it stretches much deeper than that.

The Pros Of Selling Options – Stacking the Odds to Your Favor

Now, selling options premium can be lucrative. However, there is a give and take with all good strategies. When you sell options premium, there are a lot of pros and just one weakness that I see (I’ve actually figured out a way to get rid of the cons with Weekly Windfalls).

For example, if you don’t already know, many of the options listed on exchanges expire worthless. Heck, there are some statistics that show more than 70% of options expire worthless.

If you’re a buyer of options and have been losing money… that might be the reason why. You see, if 70% of options expire worthless, and you’re long… the odds are stacked against you.

On the other hand, if you’re a seller of options… the odds are actually stacked in your favor.

Why?

Well, if you know how to sell options premium… more times than not, those options will expire worthless, and you’ll collect all the premium.

Time Decay Helps You

If you don’t know already, options have expiration dates. What that means is when you buy an options contract, there is a useful life… and over time, the options lose value due to time decay.

Those who buy options are at the mercy of time.

You see, if the option is out of the money, as each day passes… the options lose more and more value.

For example here’s a look at the options chain for Apple Inc. (AAPL).

If you look at the green rectangular column, you’ll notice theta. This is how sensitive an option’s price is to time. When you look at the $202.50 strike price, you’ll notice the theta for the calls (the left-hand side) is -0.11.

That means if you’re long 1 contract, those options would lose $11 in time premium (options have a multiplier of 100). That adds up. You see, as the options get closer and closer to the expiration date, the time decay actually accelerates.

Think if you’re a seller of options. You wouldn’t be at the mercy of time decay… and another person’s loss is your gain.

That means if you sell options with a short time to expiration… that time decay will accelerate as each day passes, and you can achieve big gains fast.

That said, time decay works in favor of options sellers… and works against option buyers.

Another pro of selling options is that you don’t have to be right on the stock direction.

Direction Doesn’t Affect You

Now, stocks either go up, down or trade sideways.

When you buy options (like buying a call or a put), you need the stock to move in your direction. Not only that, you need the volatility to go up too.

That said, you’ve only got a 50/50 chance here. Either the stock moves to your favor or it doesn’t.

But what about option sellers?

Well, let’s use an example. Let’s say you sell call options. As long as the stock does not go above the strike price plus the premium collected by the time the option expires… you’ll be profitable.

That means if the stock goes down… you make money… if the stock is choppy and just trades in a tight range … you make money… if it moves up a little (but not above the strike price)… you make money.

Conversely, the trader you sold those options (they’re long options) needs the stock to break above the strike price for them to be profitable.

Think about it like this… would you want to limit yourself and be right on the direction… or would you want to make money and not really care if you’re right on the direction?

I’ll take the latter any day.

That’s the beauty of selling options.

Now, there is one con of selling options.

Limiting Your Risk When You Sell Options

When you sell a call option… you risk is theoretically unlimited. A lot of people are actually against selling options because a number of things can go wrong.

For example, the stock could announce positive news, and those options can get in the money… then you would be on the hook for delivering those shares.

Similarly, when you sell put options, the risk you take can be big. Although it’s not unlimited like calls, if the stock drops significantly and gets below the strike price of the puts you sold… well, it could get dangerous.

Of course, these are all valid concerns.

To be honest, naked selling options is something I’m not comfortable doing.

However, the beauty of options is the fact that they allow me to be creative. That means if I want to sell premium, I can actually “buy an insurance policy” (also known as hedging my position) so that my risk is defined.

In other words, I can go to bed without having to worry whether my short premium position will be affected by a massive gap up or down.

As you can see, there are many pros to selling options premium… and if you know how to sell options premium the right way, you define your risk.

Now, if you’re interested in putting my newest options strategy to work – it’s got limited risk, high potential rewards, and you can “set it and forget it” – click here to take advantage of this incredible deal because the price will be going up very soon.

[Ed. Note: Jason Bond runs
JasonBondPicks.com and is a swing trader of small-cap stocks. In 2015 he earned a 180% return on his money. Then in 2016 he turned a $100,000 account into $430,000! Discover How He Did It]

Source: JasonBondPicks.com | Original Link

Jeff Brown’s Accelerated Profits Summit – Jeff Brown Reveals His Brand New Investment Strategy

Posted on July 15, 2019 by Brandon Buckley

6,367% In Less Than 3 Months?

This is just one example out of dozens showing big, fast, and extraordinary gains from an investment strategy I guarantee you’ve never seen before.

How do I know?

Because it was created in secret by Jeff Brown (Exponential Tech Investor), a legendary Silicon Valley angel investor who also happens to be a rocket scientist and former Fortune 500 tech executive.

This new investment strategy is the culmination of his life’s work and he expects it could hand anyone who uses it the chance to see an extra $151,740 a year… FOR LIFE.

You’ll never hear about this from those talking heads on TV or from any other source because the only place to hear about it directly is from Jeff on July 24th right here.

Jeff Bishop Weekly Money Multiplier | BulletProof Your Portfolio With These 3 Strategies

Posted on July 15, 2019 by Brandon Buckley

I love trading options…

There is no other instrument I’ve found that can give you the type of fast and steady returns they do.

For example, here are two trades I had from last week that would be life-changing for most folks:

And…

Sure, speculating with options can be awesome. But you could also use options as a hedging tool too.

If you have a long-term stock position and are interested in ways in protecting it, then listen up because I’m going to show you three ways you can hedge to bulletproof your position, lock in gains or protect yourself from further losses.

How to Manage Your Risk With Options

Let’s face it when you’re long stocks… you’re exposed to a lot of risks, such as company-specific and market-related news.

If you buy stocks… you’ve probably thought, What happens if the stock moves against me? Should I put a stop? How can I hedge my risk?

You see, many traders want to stay long a stock… but can’t take the pain on pullbacks.

This is where options come into play.

If you don’t know, if you’re long stock… you can actually hedge your position and take part in a move higher and generate some profits while limiting your downside risk.

How?

Well, there are a few ways to do that: buy puts, sell calls, or use the collar strategy.

Easiest Way to Hedge Your Stock Position

Now, the easiest way to hedge your long stock position would be to buy put options.

Here’s a look at the profit and loss (PnL) chart of a long stock position.

Basically, when the stock moves against you… you’ll have losses… and your losses are capped but could be really high.

For example, what happens if the stock releases earnings and provides weaker-than-expected guidance, causing the stock to plummet?

You could lose a whole lot more than you’d expect

Now, if you’re afraid the stock might crash, but think it’ll go back up at some point… you can actually buy puts to hedge your risk.

Here’s a look at what happens when you buy a put option when you’re long stock. This strategy is known as the married put or protective put.

Your PnL chart changes to the one shown above and it’s the same risk profile as a long call. Basically, your max loss is capped now. When you buy a put option, your max loss is just the premium paid (and commissions) for those put options.

Now, your breakeven point is the price at which you bought the stock plus the premium paid for the put options… and you can still take part in the move higher.

Another way you can hedge your stock position would be to sell calls.

Selling Calls Against Your Long Stock Position

Selling calls against your long stock position is a little different from buying puts. Basically, when you sell a call option, you’re obligated to sell shares if the option is deep in the money and you get shares assigned.

Now, traders actually use this strategy when they’ve seen some nice gains on a stock. Basically, it’s a way for them to still take part in a move higher, but are satisfied with their gains.

When you’re long stock and sell calls, the strategy is known as a covered call.

How do you use this strategy?

Well, let’s say you’re long a stock at $50 a share and it’s currently trading at $60… you think the stock could run higher and are willing to sell at a specific level, let’s say $65.

What you could do here is sell calls at $65 since you’re willing to sell your shares at that level.

If you’re long stock and sell calls at $65, here’s how your PnL chart will look like.

Now, it all depends on your objective here… if you want to sell your shares at $65… then you want the stock to rise above the strike price… and stay above at the expiration date. That way, when the shares expire in the money, you would be assigned and automatically sell your shares at $65.

On the other hand, if you’re selling calls to earn income on your stock position… you want the stock to be as close to the strike price ($65), but not break above that level.

As you can see, you still have downside risk here (if the stock pulls back and gets below $50, you would lose money on the long stock position, but collect the premium for the short calls).

That said, it may be safer to only employ this strategy when you’re sitting in profits and want to sell your shares at a specific level.

Last, but not least, you can use the collar strategy to hedge your stock position (this caps your downside and upside).

Using the Collar Strategy as a Hedge

Let’s say you’re long shares of a stock… you’re bullish but are nervous.

Well, you can actually use a combination of the first two ways to hedge: sell calls and buy puts. When you do that… you actually create a “collar”.

Basically, you buy a put that’s below the price at which you bought the stock… and sell calls with a strike price above your entry price.

Now, some traders actually like to use this strategy because you don’t have to pay a whole lot of premium. You see, when you sell calls you collect premium, and that helps pay for the put options.

However, this caps your upside, as well as your downside. If you’re running this strategy, you should be willing to sell your shares at a specific price.

Here’s how the PnL chart looks for the collar strategy. If you know anything about options, this risk profile is similar to that of a call spread.

Let’s say you’re long shares at $52, and want to sell those shares at $60… you’re bullish, but think the stock could go against you.

Well, you could buy put options with a strike price at $50… and sell calls at $60. That said, you want the stock to stay above $60 on the expiration date, so you would automatically sell those shares.

As you can see options can be very powerful and there are countless ways to hedge your long stock position. Now, I don’t buy stocks a whole lot… options are my weapon of choice and I typically don’t have to worry about hedging my stock-specific positions.

If you want to start trading options, whether it be for hedging purposes or trying to knock down triple-digit winners, then you’ll want to check out this free ebook. It’s my newest trading approach that leverages some of Wall Street’s best’ kept strategy. Click here to get started.

Source: WeeklyMoneyMultiplier.com | Original Link

Jeff Bishop Weekly Money Multiplier | Earnings Kick Off

Posted on July 13, 2019 by Brandon Buckley

Stocks continue to surge higher, as new all-time highs were set on Friday for the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and the Dow.

Despite the S&P 500 reaching 3,000 and the Dow Jones blasting through 27,000… this has to be one of the most loathed bull markets I have ever seen.

However, the Fed sees a slowdown in business investments and economic momentum seems to be declining in significant foreign economies.

My heart and soul don’t believe in this rally… but I trade off my money pattern… and not my emotions.

(Expiration Friday…Where Amazing Happens!)

That said it’s time to pivot.

For the last month or so the market has been focused on politics and policy… but starting next week the attention shifts to corporate earnings.

Companies expected to release include Microsoft, JPMorgan, Johnson & Johson, Netflix, and UnitedHealth Group, to name a few.

Let’s see if the VIX (“the markets fear index”) stays here at 12.39… (it opened at 27.54 on the first day of this year) .

A low VIX implies that traders are complacent. A high VIX implies that traders are fearful and eager to hedge.

Now, I’ll be very shocked if we see the VIX at these levels after earnings season ends.

That said, it’s time to prepare for the upcoming week, review what the Fed said, and talk about some trade ideas.

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Market At All-Time Highs, What I’m Focused On

Well, Fed Chair Jerome Powell played his cards right, according to the market. You see, the market has been pricing in a rate cut in July… and as of yesterday, traders are pricing in a 100% of a cut.

The market is pricing in a 76.5% chance of a 0.25% rate cut, and a 23.5% chance of a 0.50% rate cut.

Now, Powell hinted that the Fed is on course to cut rates by at least 0.25% at the end of this month at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

That said, the market hit a new all-time high and the S&P 500 broke above 3K!

Here’s a look at the hourly chart on SPY.

Now, it’s been trading in range a whole lot over the past few days… and with rate cuts in the cards… the market will be monitoring the Fed closely.

There’s something interesting going on with the bond market now too.

Here’s a look at TLT.

It’s actually been selling off, while the market is moving higher.

Over the last few weeks, we’ve more or less seen bonds and stocks move in the same direction… but now, we’re starting to see bonds collapse, even with the potential interest rate cuts.

That said, I’ll be looking to get into TLT puts very soon if I see a clear signal.

Although the Fed has been all the news lately and traders don’t seem to care about anything else…

However, there’s something that should matter soon: earnings seasons.

Traders are going to have their hands full very soon… and I’m going to love it because there’s going to be a steady stream of earnings coming out for 2Q very soon.

Move Over Powell, It’s Time for Companies to Sit in the Hot Seat

If you don’t know, companies listed on NYSE and Nasdaq must report earnings results to update investors.

Now, with the FOMC looking to cut rates… there’s actually a negative backdrop, as it could be an indication the economy is weak.

Now, focusing on earnings actually helps us with the macro view and figuring out what’s really going on.

Strong earnings across the board will give us an indication that the Fed may change its interest rate view… while weak earnings could mean there would be more rate cuts to come.

Not only that, when earnings come out, there are a few options strategies you could use… the same strategies that Wall Street traders have used for years, and there’s one place you can get your hands on those strategies that are surprisingly simple to use.

The first week of earnings season will kick off with financials, transportation and manufacturing companies… as well as some tech names like Netflix (NFLX), Microsoft (MSFT), Crowdstrike Holdings (CRWD), and IBM.

I think this earnings season will be the one that provides us with the most opportunities for massive returns. Why?

Well, expectations are low going into the upcoming earnings season.

According to Factset, earnings for the S&P 500 are expected to fall by 3%. If there is an actual decline in earnings… it’ll be the first time the S&P 500 has reported two straight quarters of year-over-year earnings declines since 2016.

The reason this is so enticing is due to the fact that if companies report stellar earnings and guide higher… there will be a lot of opportunities.

On the other hand, if earnings are weaker than expected and companies cut their guidance… well, we’ll still have a lot of opportunities when stocks are crashing.

That said, we’ll be watching earnings, as well as the Fed and the overall market, because we’ll be seeing whether the forward-looking guidance justifies these levels in the market.

Before we get into the earnings calendar and implied moves… let’s take a look at what’s on tap for the economic calendar.

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Economic Calendar

Monday, July 15

8:30 AM EST Empire Manufacturing for July
8:50 AM EST Fed’s Williams speaks at Libor briefing

Tuesday, July 16

7:45 AM EST ICSC Weekly Retail Sales

8:30 AM EST Import & Export Prices
8:30 AM EST Retail Sales
9:15 AM EST Industrial Production

10:00 AM EST NAHB Housing Market Index

10:00 AM EST Business Inventories

3:30 PM EST Fed’s Evans speaks in Chicago

4:00 PM EST Net-Long term TIC Flows

4:30 PM EST API Weekly Inventory Data

Wednesday, July 17

7:00 AM EST MBA Mortgage Applications Data

8:30 AM EST Housing Starts

8:30 AM EST Building Permits

10:30 AM EST Weekly DOE Inventory Data

2:00 PM EST Fed Beige Book

Thursday, July 18

8:30 AM EST Weekly Jobless Claims

8:30 AM EST Philly Fed Business Outlook
9:45 AM EST Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index

10:00 AM EST Leading Index

10:30 AM EST Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data

2:15 PM EST Fed’s Williams speaks on Monetary Policy

Friday, July 19

10:00 AM EST University of Michigan Confidence

11:05 AM EST Fed’s Bullard speaks at Central Bank Research in NY

1:00 PM EST Baker Hughes Weekly Rig Count

Now, let’s jump right into the earnings calendar.

Corporate Earnings Calendar

Monday, July 15

Earnings Before Open

Citigroup Inc. ( C ) implying a 3.17% move, historical average move 4.16%.

Earnings After Close

J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) implying a 5.33% move (monthly contracts expiring July 19). Historical average move 4.3%.

Servis First Bancshares (SFBS) implying a 5.20% move (monthly contracts expiring July 19). Historical average move 4.25%.

Wintrust Financial Corp. (WTFC) implying a 4.78% move (monthly contracts expiring July 19). Historical average move 3.83%.

Tuesday, July 16

Earnings Before Open

Canadian Pacific Railway (CP) implying a 3.32% move (monthly contracts expiring July 19). Historical average move 3.51%.

Charles Schwab (SCHW) implying a 3.58% move. Historical average move 3.4%.

Domino’s Pizza (DPZ) implying a 5.31% move (monthly contracts expiring July 19). Historical average move 7.81%.

Goldman Sachs Group (GS) implying a 3.68% move. Historical average move 3.85%.

Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) implying a 2.39% move. Historical average move 3.25%.

JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM) implying a 2.60% move. Historical average move 2.66%.

Prologic (PLD) implying a 3.23% move. Historical average move 2.92%

Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) implying a 3.43% move. Historical average move 3.3%.

Earnings After Close

Cintas Corporation (CTAS) implying a 4.65% move. Historical average move 6.32%.

CSX Corp. (CSX) implying a 3.73% move. Historical average move 5.09%.

FNF Group (FNF) implying a 3.18% move (monthly contracts expiring July 19). Historical average move 3.85%.

Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) implying a 5.16% move. Historical average move 4.24%.

United Continental Holdings (UAL) implying a 4.89% move. Historical average move 8.59%.

Wednesday, July 17

Earnings Before Open

Abbott Laboratories (ABT) implying a 2.54% move. Historical average move 4.2%.

ASML Holding (ASML) implying a 4.93% move. Historical average move 4.83%.

Bank of America Corp. (BAC) implying a 3.20% move. Historical average move 3.38%.

Bank of New York Mellon (BK) implying a 4.12% move. Historical average move 5.2%.

Comerica Inc. (CMA) implying 4.07% move. Historical average move 3.22%.

Ericsson (ERIC) implying a 7.92% move. Historical average move 10.5%

Omnicom Group Inc. (OMC) implying a 3.89% move. Historical average move 5.44% move.

Progressive Corp. (PGR) implying a 3.64% move. Historical average move 3.3%.
Textron Inc. (TXT) implying a 6.44% move. Historical average move 6.92%.

Earnings After Close

ADTRAN Inc. (ADTN) implying a 7.65% move. Historical average move 10.61%.

Alcoa Inc. (AA) implying a 7.02% move. Historical average move 7.41%.

Crown Castle International (CCI) implying a 2.65% move. Historical average move 2.78%.

Crown Holdings (CCK) implying a 3.93% move. Historical average move 4.28%.

eBay Inc. (EBAY) implying a 5.68% move. Historical average move 7.09% move.

International Business Machines (IBM) implying a 4.66% move. Historical average move 6.97%.

Kinder Morgan Inc. (KMI) implying a 2.63% move. Historical average move 3.83%.

Netflix Inc. (NFLX) implying a 6.56% move. Historical average move 8.89%.

United Rentals Inc. (URI) implying a 6.93% move. Historical average move 7.24%.

Thursday, July 18

Earnings Before Open

Alliance Data Systems (ADS) implying a 6.05% move. Historical average move 7.46%.

Ally Financial (ALLY) implying a 5.05% move. Historical average move 4.21%.

BB&T (BBT) implying a 3.12% move. Historical average move 3.94%.

Blackstone (BX) implying a 3.71% move. Historical average move 3.72%.

Genuine Parts Company (GPC) implying a 3.48% move. Historical average move 5.13%.

Honeywell International (HON) implying a 3.31% move. Historical average move 2.74%.

Morgan Stanley (MS) implying a 3.64% move. Historical average move 4.01%.

Nucor Corp. (NUE) implying a 3.42% move. Historical average move 3.58%.

Philip Morris International (PM) implying a 6.17% move. Historical average move 3.65%.

Union Pacific Corp. (UNP) implying a 3.54% move. Historical average move 4.84%.

UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH) implying a 3.46% move. Historical average move 4.56%.

Earnings After Close

Capital One Financial (COF) implying a 3.91% move. Historical average move 5.08%.

Chewy Inc. (CHWY) implying a 12.28% move.

CrowdStrike Inc. (CRWD) implying an 11.43% move.

E*Trade Financial Corp. (ETFC) implying a 4.71% move. Historical average move 4.4%.

Exponent Inc. (EXPO) implying a 4.73% move. Historical average move 6.13%.

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) implying a 4.90% move. Historical average move 5.73%.

Microsoft Corp. (MSFT) implying a 3.44% move. Historical average move 4.34%.

Friday, July 19

Earnings Before Open

American Express Co. (AXP) implying a 3.17% move. Historical average move 3.62%.

BlackRock Inc. (BLK) implying a 2.50% move. Historical average move 3.49% move.

Schlumberger (SLB) implying a 4% move. Historical average move 4.05%.

State Street Corp. (STT) implying a 4.96% move. Historical average move 6.45%.

Synchrony Financial (SYF) implying a 3.87% move. Historical average move 4.54%.

Now, we’ve also got some IPOs on the calendar this week.

IPO Calendar

Douyu International (DOYU) 67.3M share IPO expected to price between $11.50 – $14

Afya Ltd. (AFYA) 13.74M share IPO expected to price between $16 – $18

Assetmark Financial (AMK) 12.5M share IPO expected to price between $19 – $21

Fulcrum Therapeutics (FULC) 4.5M share IPO expected to price between $16 – $18

Genmab (GMAB) 27.8M share IPO expected to price

Intercorp Financial (IFS) 9M share IPO expected to price between $44 – $50

Medallia Inc. (MDLA) 14.5M share IPO expected to price between $16 – $18

Mirum Pharmaceuticals (MIRM) 5M share IPO expected to price between $14-$16

Phreesia Inc. (PHR) 7.812M share IPO expected to price between

IHeartMedia Inc. (IHRT) – This is a Direct Public Offering (It’s currently trading on the Pink Sheets)

Owl Rock Capital (ORCC) 9.5M shares IPO expected to price between $15.30 – $16.30

Source: WeeklyMoneyMultiplier.com | Original Link

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