Jeff Bishop Total Alpha: Avis Car Rental (CAR) trade Scored $23,000 In 72 Hours [Details Inside]

Market-changing catalysts can lead to oversized gains in just a matter of days. That’s why let’s dig into Jeff Bishop Total Alpha recent Avis Car Rental (CAR) trade that netted him over $23,000 in just a few days.

I know firsthand how market-changing catalysts can lead to oversized gains in just a matter of days.

That’s why I wanted to dig into my recent Avis Car Rental (CAR) trade that netted me over $23,000 in just a few days.

This Total Alpha trade required excellent timing to hit these profits.

Of course, everyone wants to swing for the fences all the time…

Which is natural…

But it’s a good way to blow out your account…

A lesson I learned the hard way at the beginning of my trading career…

I don’t want you to go through that same type of pain I did.

That’s why I put together this case study…

It highlights two of the most important factors which cause a stock to explode.

Sifting through the noise

Between the free and paid content out there, you can live in a world filled with chryons and blogs. Heck, my kids spend hours on their phones as it is!

Before running down a rabbit hole, any news story has to pass the usefulness test. It needs to provide me an edge on one of the following in order to make money.

  • Those directly affected
  • People or businesses indirectly affected
  • Able to narrow down with some specificity (IE it isn’t too broad)

Lastly, I need to make sure the information is actionable. While global warming is a hot topic, it doesn’t have the immediacy that bankruptcy does.

Narrowing it down

Once I traced the effects of that news, I began scanning for chart setups that are “ripe” for a news catalyst.

When I read the news that Hertz (HTZ) would soon file for bankruptcy, I thought about who might be affected:

  • Suppliers
  • Customers
  • Competitors

Then I have to ask the obvious question – why were they going bankrupt? In this case, demand fell through the floor, and it doesn’t look like that’s changing anytime soon.

More importantly, they couldn’t get enough cash to continue operations. Yes, they have a lot of cars, but they can’t liquidate them that quickly.

Given that, I see two main areas impacted: suppliers and competitors.

Suppliers aren’t likely to feel the marginal impact of Hertz going out of business. Car companies like Ford, GM have much bigger problems at the moment. Plus, rental car companies aren’t a huge portion of their customer base (though they are significant).

On the other hand, competitors seemed promising. If Hertz can’t function in this environment, chances are others would be in danger too. That leaves potential for some to be overvalued by the market.

Once I had that idea in hand, I went through the list and narrowed it down to Avis Budget Group (CAR).

I took one look at the chart, and it just screamed “YES”.

Chart analysis

CAR had already bounced off a new low and was now spending more and more time in the overbought levels of the RSI.

Additionally, the weakening of the momentum appeared as the trade began to dip to the 13-period moving average on the hourly chart.

Combine all that with a huge spike in volume early on April 29th, and the indicators were clear to me; CAR was likely going to take a hard pullback.

CAR Hourly Chart

Options Gameplan

Buy puts in-the-money and sell a call spread to cash in on the premium as well.  Like a “one-two” punch in the bulls-eye (get it?)

First, I bought the puts at the $18 strike.  With the candles already beginning to shrink through the morning, there seemed little chance of a push above that mark any time soon.

Next, I sold the calls at the $18 strike while setting up the spread by buying the $20 calls, both at a 2-week expiration; plenty of time to cash in.  This defined risk of only a $2 split on the spread gave me the safety I was looking for in collecting the premium as a bonus.

The Result:  A $20,000+ Payday in under 72 hours.

Of course, all of my Total Alpha Premium Members watched this trade from conception to sale.  Following along is super-simple when you’re literally the “play-by-play” as it happens in real-time.

I sure hope this helps you better understand the why and the how of the Total Alpha strategy.

Want to follow along in real-time?

Check out all the Total Alpha has to offer Right Here.

Source: | Original Link

Jeff Bishop: Are You Ready For The Biggest Squeeze In Oil Prices?

Jeff Bishop has reason to believe that the oil industry will begin to see a wave of bankruptcies. But in order for you to take advantage of this boom and bust sector…You first need to understand what’s causing this pricing pressure, when it’s expected to hit, and who stands to gain.

Has this ever happened to you?

Less than a month ago we experienced negative oil prices for the first time ever in history, forcing drillers to halt production.

But since then, we’ve seen a steep recovery.

June crude oil futures have rallied from $6.50 to $25, a 286% rise off the April 21st lows.

But you know what?

I have reason to believe that the industry will begin to see a wave of bankruptcies.

But in order for you to take advantage of this boom and bust sector…

You first need to understand what’s causing this pricing pressure, when it’s expected to hit, and who stands to gain.



Total Alpha Trading


Lower global production

For the first part of the year, Russia and Saudi Arabia felt the need to go tit for tat on oil production. Neither wanted to curtail supply, even in the face of plunging demand. That led to a current glut of inventory that’s filled up global storage.

Finally, the two agreed to cut output, only after the U.S. absorbed a portion of the reduction for Mexico. However, that only recently happened.

Oil production isn’t something that you instantaneously shut off and on like a light switch. It takes time to turn off production and quite a while to restart.

Here’s an idea of how demand and supply line up according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

The mismatch caused by the decline in economic activity created a massive build in inventories, which is why we saw crude already go negative.

So, how are we going to overcome such a massive amount of supply?

Simple economics!

Supply decrease

Global oil production didn’t just decline, it came to a complete standstill. To give you an idea of the scope of the change, we had 292 oil rigs in operation last week according to Baker Hughes. Last year, we had 805.

These rigs aren’t just something you turn off and on at the drop of a hat either. As I mentioned before, they can take weeks, if not months to return to full operation. That also assumes you can get the workers back.

On top of that, the U.S. is set to face a wave of bankruptcies in this sector in the coming months. Now, most market observers expected this to come at some point. The boom in fracking created an abundance of supply that wasn’t necessary.

However, having them all hit at once can disrupt the industry. Banks are tightening lending to these companies, fearful that they can’t even operate cashflow positive.

Add into this entire mix a reasonably large cut from Russia, Saudi Arabia, and other OPEC states, and you’ve got the makings of a supply cut that looks to overshoot its mark.

Demand potential

For as little as we know about the post-COVID world, there’s a possibility things return to normal quickly. It’s not likely, but it is possible.

Even under a more tepid scenario, consumer spending on energy is climbing as people return to work around the globe. It’s unlikely demand returns for jet fuel, especially given the asset liquidation in airlines.

You needn’t look any further than the U.S. summer getaway. Typically, Americans start their summer travels around June, with many hopping in the car to travel around the country.

Already, we’re seeing a preference for automotive travel over air for obvious reasons. While one doesn’t make up for the other, it’s nonetheless a key driver for consumption going forward.

Big integrated are my favorite plays

Just the other week Hertz Rental Cars (HTZ) filed for bankruptcy. That caught me off-guard, as I thought they had a better balance sheet.

That goes to show you that even the big guys hold risk…and it’s why I don’t want to mess around with smaller oil names.

Companies like Exxon Mobile (XOM), Chevron (CVX), and Conoco Phillips (COP) have withstood the test of time. If I’m going to play a rebound in oil, I’d start with these guys. They not only have the money to withstand this soft patch, but snap up smaller competitors.

Now, the other way I like to diversify my risk is with the energy ETFs. My favorite is the XLE ETF that tracks the S&P Energy Sector.

XLE Daily Chart

The ETF not only has a beautiful uptrend, but it yields a nice 2.68% dividend yield.

Are there other plays out there with greater potential return? Sure. But, I find these ones to offer the best return when you account for risk.

Accounting for risk in your trades

Risk is number one in my book for concepts traders need to understand. It’s broken some of the biggest funds out there that ignored some basic precepts.

One way to get a jump on the market is by learning the essential skills and strategies taught in the Total Alpha Bootcamp.

Click here to discover the power of options, enroll in the Total Alpha Bootcamp today.


Source: | Original Link

Jeff Bishop’s Options Selection Process Revealed

Picking the right option contract can mean the difference between hundreds, if not thousands of dollars. Jeff Bishop is going to teach you his options selection process.

Has this ever happened to you?

You have high conviction on a trade so you decide to trade options because they give you more bang for your buck. You place the trade, the stock does exactly what you thought it would do, but you end up losing money anyway.

Nothing is worse than getting everything right in the trade except for the options contract.

Most traders don’t think about it until the very end. But it should be the first thing that you look at. Picking the right option contract can mean the difference between hundreds, if not thousands of dollars.

Today I’m going to teach you my options selection process.

After reading this I’m confident you’ll become a more profitable and consistent options trader.



Total Alpha Trading


Jeff Bishop’s Options Selection Process – Expiration

As I mentioned in the video, I want to go out roughly 2x-4x the amount of time I expect a trade will take to play out. So, if I think it takes a week for the trade to work, I’ll go out 3-4 weeks.

One thing you need to understand is how option cycles work. Some stocks have weekly expirations, while others only have monthly dates. Stocks with weekly expirations are typically more popular and have higher volumes.

However, the drawback is the weekly options may not have a lot of volume on the contracts you want. That means you could face wide bid/ask spreads, which tends to lead to you paying more to the market makers for an option contract.

When I can, I prefer to stick with the option contracts that have the highest liquidity (trade the most often). Especially in this environment, I want to stick with bigger names so that I can capture as much of the move as possible.

Jeff Bishop’s Options Selection Process – Strike Price

One of the key components to any option is the strike price you choose. The strike is the price where the option contract is tied.

For example, if I buy a call option on AAPL at $270, that gives me the right to buy 100 shares of Apple per contract at $270. Conversely, if that was a put contract, I’d have the right to sell that same amount at $270.

Each strike price has a greek value known as a delta that goes with it. The delta tells you how much an option will move for a $1 change in the stock’s price.

At-the-money options are always 0.5 (or negative 0.5 for puts). The further out-of-the-money you go, the lower the delta. As you get further in-the-money, the delta moves towards 1.

This is a graph that shows the relationships between delta, price and time for call options on a $55 stock.

The longer you have until expiration, the more of an ‘S’ the delta curve makes when you graph it against a change in a stock’s price. As you approach expiration, the line becomes straighter.

Now, this means that options further out-of-the-money will move more with the stock in percentage terms, but are also the most exposed to time decay.  As a stock approaches expiration, the extrinsic value heads towards zero.

Note: Intrinsic value is the price of an option that would remain if you exercised the option today. Extrinsic value is anything remaining. Once a stock goes above a call strike or below a put strike, it will have an intrinsic value equal to the difference between the stock price and the strike price.

Now, when I trade options, I prefer to buy options that are a little bit in-the-money. That will typically cost more, but I’m hit with less time decay. The highest amount of time decay hits at-the-money options.

Typically, I’ll go for an option that has 0.6 or -0.6 deltas. You can see what that looks like in this option chain below.

In this case, the price of the stock is $214.81. The 0.6 call option delta would be the $211 call while the $219 put would be the -0.6 delta.

Jeff Bishop’s Options Selection Process – Implied Volatility

The last thing I consider when choosing my option contract is implied volatility. Typically, implied volatility is higher the further out you go and lower the closer you are to expiration.

That means that any opinion I pick will suffer from time decay and potentially implied volatility decay.

So, I want to be careful when I choose my options contract. Every stock has its own implied volatility as well as each option contract.

One of the reasons I never hold option contracts through earnings is because they lose a ton of value after earnings are released. Implied volatility rises into the announcement and falls immediately afterward.

Similarly, when stocks fall a lot (like the recent crash), options contracts get more expensive. That makes it difficult to make money trading long options because you have both time decay and implied volatility decay working against you.

The trick is to balance implied volatility with the chart. I look at the implied volatility rank to get an idea of whether I’m facing historically high implied volatility. IV rank looks at the range for implied volatility over the last year and tells me where the current IV is as a percentage of that range.

For example, if the IV range was from 25-75 and the current IV is 50, then the IV range would be 50%.

Jeff Bishop’s Options Selection Process – Free Options Masterclass

Your learning doesn’t have to stop here. I have a free options masterclass coming up where we go into even more detail, discussing key concepts like a stock’s lifecycle. You definitely don’t want to miss this.

Click here to register for my free options masterclass.

Source: | Original Link

Jeff Bishop Strategic Investor Summit (FREE STUFF!)

Jeff Bishop teamed up with some of the industry’s brightest minds to reveal how you can take advantage of this market and how he expects to 10X his portfolio over the next 3 years.

Jeff Bishop’s Strategic Investor Summit – What IS IT?

This event is ABSOLUTELY FREE to attend..for now.

Once seats fill, $349 will be the going rate for Jeff Bishop’s Investor Summit.

This is how Jeff Bishop plans to capitalize on the market and 10X his portfolio over the next 3 years!

You don’t want to be on the sidelines for this!

Join the most exclusive investing series right now!

It’s a 5 day event.

Four World Class Investors Are Coming Together to Deliver the 2020 Strategic Investor Summit

Jeff Bishop teamed up with some of the industry’s brightest minds to reveal how you can take advantage of this market and how he expects to 10X his portfolio over the next 3 years.

You’ll get Jeff’s NEWEST investing manual, never-before seen interviews with this group of industry giants, and a LIVE training session!

What’s the timetable?

It starts TODAY, April 17th.


The 10x Portfolio Blueprint


Interview with Jordan Belfort, The Wolf of Wall Street


Interview with Howard Lindzon, Co-Founder of StockTwits


Interview with Allan Marshall, Founder of XPO Logistics



There is no time to waste for this.

Join now and prepare yourself for years to come.

It’s time to learn how you can take advantage of what the market has given us and this group is ready to teach you how!

Make no mistake about it, this summit initially had a $349 price tag on it, but Jeff wanted RagingBull members to get access for FREE before ANYONE ELSE!

This is a one-time opportunity.

Sign up now.

Jeff Bishop Total Alpha: You Can’t Start Your Trading Week Without This

Don’t start plopping cash down into stocks quite yet. There’s still a lot of data we still need to cover before deciding on the best course of action. For that, we start with the one place your money requires you to pay attention to – earnings.

We’ve got a jam-packed week coming up with information flying at us from all angles.

Signs finally started to emerge of progress as New York’s new Coronavirus cases began to plateau day to day.

Looking across the pond to Italy, they’re finally seeing a meaningful decline in cases. Even Spain has begun talking about restarting the economy.

However, don’t start plopping cash down into stocks quite yet.

There’s still a lot of data we still need to cover before deciding on the best course of action.

For that, we start with the one place your money requires you to pay attention to – earnings.



Total Alpha Trading


Brother Can You Spare Some Change

Banks kickoff the most curious earnings season in history. We get our first insights into how far demand fell from the Coronavirus.

Jaime Dimon and other CEOs already set expectations for economic retrenchment worse than the Great Recession. Lending certainly fell outside of the government stimulus measures.

Three key areas will tell us a lot about the coming months. First, oil and gas loans.

Investors already know which banks hold more risk from fracking exposure. What I really want to know is how bad things will get. Are we going to see 50% of drillers fold or has most of the clutter already been swept off the board?

Second, financial market stability. Nearly every recession or depression starts and ends with the banks in one way or another. If CEOs start talking about tightening credit conditions or liquidity issues, that’s when we need to worry.

Finally, the consumer outlook. I don’t expect they’ll be able to offer much insight with so much unknown. However, listen for clues about which sectors continue to spend despite the lockdown.

Country Roads, Take Me Home

Two major transport companies give us our first look into main street. JB Hunt (JBHT) and Delta Airlines (DAL) offer a look at the bookends of the economy

Delta is sure to be an interesting earnings call. Reports stated they are hemorrhaging $50m a day.

Their balance sheet and operations shine compared to United Airlines (UAL).

But, their exposure to international air travel hurts more than Southwest Airlines (LUV).

With the stock beaten up like every day is its first day at school, I want to know how they plan to survive.

Specifically, will they require government money, or can they exist on their own credit?


DAL Hourly Chart

If they can offer a pathway back to former glory, shares could surge higher.

At the other end, JB Hunt tells us exactly how our transportation network changed.

We already know that food distributors from Sysco (SYY) to Gordon Foods were forced to rethink their food supply chains.

I expect to get an idea of how much demand really increased through grocery stores.

That should give us a sense of whether they and consumer staple companies deserve richer multiples.

The Kids Can Hear You Fighting

Any rare moments of bipartisanship were fleeting at best.

As the paycheck protection program runs out of funding, Republican leaders quickly moved to shore up the program.

Yet, it appears they didn’t inform their Democratic colleagues beforehand. Democrats want to provide additional money for state and local governments and hospitals.

However, Republicans balked at the idea, refusing to broaden the scope beyond the PPP, wanting to save those negotiations for the phase four stimulus.

At least their cordiality is a step above the Brooks-Sumner affair of 1856, in which one Senator Brooks beat Senator Sumner to within an inch of his life using his walking cane…so that’s something.

The money will flow eventually regardless of any jawboning, and there will be funds for both sides, it’s inevitable.

Despite bluster at the federal level, the White House abdicated responsibility for managing the crisis to the states.

Any guidelines or lockdown from the executive branch hold very little sway in the direction of the country, including any councils to re-open the economy.

Instead, we’ll be left with a patchwork of regulations and tests that likely impedes the economic restart.

Even if restrictions at all levels were removed, a large segment of the population likely won’t wander outdoors until we have some extensive testing or vaccine implemented.

Data Delivery

We’ve got some key economic data coming out this week that’s sure to spark some dinner conversations.

March retail sales give us our first comprehensive look at the gravity of the slowdown.

I’ll be interested to see if there’s any life in the hardest-hit sectors. We’ll probably get a few surprises in here as well.

Jobless claims hold the hotspot Thursday. It’s unlikely that we still have captured the full extent of all the claims.

Many out-of-date state systems can’t keep up with the load, creating massive bottlenecks.

Not to be completely left out, we get a look at home buying data which is sure to be abysmal.

It’s got to be tough to shop for a new place when you’re locked in your old one.

Expected earnings dates listed in (…)

Stocks I want to bet against…

TLT (none), ZM (Mar 4), COST (Mar 5)

Stocks I want to buy…

MJ (none), UNG (none), XLE (none), WDAY (May 26), TWLO (May 3), OLED (May 7), V (Apr 22), IRBT (Apr 28), DPZ (May 20), GOOGL (May 4), CVNA (May 13), CMG (Apr 22), NFLX (April 21), AMZN (Apr 23), UBER (Jun 4), GDX (none), ROKU (May 13), MTCH (May 5), TDOC (May 5), ZS, AYX, RH, WORK, IWM

This Week’s Calendar

Monday, April 13th

  • None
  • Major Earnings: Delta Airlines (DAL)

Tuesday, April 14th

  • 7:45 AM EST – ICSC Weekly Retail Sales
  • 8:30 AM EST – Import Prices March
  • 4:30 PM EST – API Weekly Inventory Data
  • Major earnings: JB Hunt Transportation (JBHT), Fastenal Co (FAST), First Repub Bank (FRC), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM), Wells Fargo & Company (WFC)

Wednesday, April 15th

  • 7:00 AM EST – MBA Mortgage Applications Data
  • 8:30 AM EST – Retail Sales for March
  • 8:30 AM EST – Empire Manufacturing for April
  • 9:15 AM EST – Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization for March
  • 10:00 AM EST – NAHB Housing Market Index for April
  • 10:30 AM EST – Weekly DOE Inventory Data
  • Major earnings: Bank of America Corporation (BAC), Citigrp Inc (C), Goldman Sachs Grp (GS), PNC Finl Svcs Grp Inc (PNC), UnitedHealth Grp Inc (UNH), US Bancorp (USB), Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY)

Thursday, April 16th

  • 8:30 AM EST – Weekly Jobless & Continuing Claims
  • 8:30 AM EST – Housing Starts & Building Permits for March
  • 8:30 AM EST – Philly Fed Survey for April
  • 10:30 AM EST – EIA Natural Gas Inventory Data
  • Major earnings: Abbott Laboratories (ABT), Bank of New York Mellon Corp (BK), Blackrock Inc’A’ (BLK), KeyCorp (KEY), Rite Aid (RAD), United Airlines Hldgs Inc (UAL), Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL)

Friday, April 17th

  • 10:00 AM EST – Leading Index for March
  • 1:00 PM EST – Baker Hughes Rig Count
  • Major earnings: Danaher Corp (DHR), Honeywell Intl (HON), Kansas City Southern (KSU), Regions Finl Corporation (RF), Schlumberger Ltd (SLB), State Street Corp (STT)

Click here to register for my free options masterclass.

Source: | Original Link

Jeff Bishop Total Alpha Strategy:This Says The Market Is Ready To Rally

You know exactly what that circle represents. If you don’t, no worries. I’ll review it here, and explain it to anyone who hasn’t gone through the class.
We’ll be looking at fresh charts on the VIX, TLT, and IWM…aka the big picture

If you thought the market’s reaction to the weekend news was positive, I’d also like to add an observation I’ve been witnessing.

There is a specific trend I’ve noticed over the last week. And all has to do with the market’s fear index, the VIX.

It rises during periods of uncertainty and market sell-offs. And declines during bull markets and slow moving-markets.

Take a look at the chart below:

VIX Hourly Chart

And since you’re well-versed in what I covered in class, you know exactly what that circle represents.

If you don’t, no worries.

I’ll review it here, and explain it to anyone who hasn’t gone through the class.

We’ll be looking at fresh charts on the VIX, TLT, and IWM…aka the big picture

Betwixt The VIX

The VIX measures the implied volatility of options on the S&P 500. Think of implied volatility as the demand for options. Demand tends to increase as markets fall and visa versa. So, what does this chart tell us?

VIX Hourly Chart

That circle tells us three critical pieces of information. First, the VIX closed at the dead lows of the week, and it didn’t just get there on the last day. The VIX spent the entire week in a slow bleed lower.

Second, we’re trading below the 200-period moving average on the hourly chart. That’s a crucial point as that typically acts as support. Yet, the VIX didn’t even bother holding there. It strutted past it like a jilted lover.

Third, the 13-period moving average continues to ride below the 30-period moving average. When you get a faster moving average holding below a slower one, it highlights an ongoing downtrend.

I want to let you in on a little secret.

We’ve got the exact same phenomenon happening in the VVIX, which measures option demand on the VIX.

VVIX Hourly Chart

Lower implied volatility on the VIX often means that stocks want to move higher. When both the VIX and VVIX echo the same story, it’s likely we’ll see a rally.

A Crude Story

Last week’s rally started in part from the crude markets. That shouldn’t surprise most of us as the plunge in crude last month kicked off the second, steeper leg of the decline in equities.

Supposedly, Trump managed to bring the Russians and Saudis to the negotiating table. Both turned on the oil faucet, creating a glut of supply against declining global demand. However, Monday’s meeting has been postponed after some jawboning by both sides.

Nonetheless, we’ve seen one of the most historic dives in oil prices. We shouldn’t be surprised to see rallies that leave skid marks.

USO Hourly Chart

While we haven’t quite crested the 200-period moving average, we’ve got a 13-period crossing over the 30-period moving average. This ‘money-pattern’ tells me oil wants to at least hit the 200-period moving average. Plus, we’ve got a pretty bullish setup there as well.

Things Still Suck Long-Term

Make no mistake…any short-term rally is meant to cause shorts a lot of pain. However, the bond market says we can’t get complacent.

Money continues to flow into treasuries, hoping to hide out from stocks. You can’t look at this chart and see anything but the bond bulls in the chart.

TLT Hourly Chart

Yes, it will be difficult for bonds to make new all-time highs. Heck, they’ve experienced their own record rallies. If we went much further, we’d see negative rates in the U.S. pretty soon.

Small Caps – Big Drops

Two areas continue to get butchered: small caps and financials. Most people aren’t aware, but the Russell 2000 small-cap index has a heavier weighting of financial companies than the S&P 500. It’s also more susceptible to economic risk as smaller companies have shallower balance sheets than the big guys.

When I look at the IWM hourly chart, I can’t help but wonder when it’ll fall apart.

IWM Hourly Chart

Not only does the chart have a bearish crossover, but it continues to far underperform the other major indexes. The SPY finished down 2.06% last week. That’s Warren Buffet compared to the IWM’s -7.05%.

From the all-time highs, the IWM is down 38.66% compared to the SPY at -26.8%. Small caps tend to lead the rest of the market which tells me the bears are far from done ripping things apart.

Did You Miss The Masterclass?

Not to worry. I’ve got another one coming up shortly, so while you’re trapped indoors, do yourself a favor and get a free education.

Click here to register for my free options masterclass.

Source: | Original Link